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šŸ˜Æ The 1 man selling rn

And the McRib Effect

Happy Saturday Besties,

Instagram is testing a reset button for your algorithm ā€” 1 button that resets what posts are recommended. Meta calls it a recommendation reset (we call it an algorithm amnesty).

If you skimmed a carousel from Skims one time, and your Explore page is not-safe-for-work as a result (NickšŸ™‹)ā€¦ now you can give it a cleanse.

  • This is so crazyā€¦ that maybe you forward this email to 3 besties and tell them about it šŸ˜‰. Do it right now. Weā€™ll waitā€¦ reply if you do. šŸ‘€ šŸ‘€

GET THIS

šŸ” McDonaldā€™s is bringing back the McRib (again)ā€¦and this time itā€™s even selling McRib sauce in half-gallon jugs. šŸ«¢ 

But even bigger than that is The McRib Effect: When this pork sandwich is on the menu, the S&P Index rises 3x more than when itā€™s not (Data Analyst Nick Magguli ran the numbers from 2010 to 2017). Itā€™s correlation, not causation, but...

When ya dive deeper into the data, McRibā€™s surprise return dates are actually highly strategic ā€” When McDonaldā€™s revenue drops (see: E. Coli outbreak), the McRibs drops:

  • šŸ½ The last 4x McDā€™s brought back the McRib were during periods of slowing or shrinking sales (including right now)

And even wilder? The McRib also align with low pork prices:

  • šŸ½ The last 4x McDā€™s brought back the McRib, pork prices had recently fallen 20% (including right now)

The Takeaway: McRib isnā€™t just a profit puppy, itā€™s McDonaldā€™s superhero. It boosts sales AND cuts costs.

šŸ“ˆ The stock market and Bitcoin are at record highs. Everyone keeps buying everything from crypto to stocks to banana-artā€¦

ā€¦except for 1 person: Warren Buffett.

Ever since he started managing Berkshire Hathawayā€™s money 58 years ago, his average annual return is 20% ā€” Thatā€™s twice as good as the S&P 500. So when he speaks, we listenā€¦.

  • What would Warren do? Heā€™s sold $133B of stock in 2024, and bought almost nothing. Meanwhile, markets have been in euphoria, with stocks & crypto at all-time-highs.

  • So heā€™s sitting on a record pile of cash: $325B. How much is that exactly? $325B is enough to buy 1 Disney, 2 McDonaldā€™s, or 3 Nikes (actually, itā€™s enough to buy every single fast food chain in Americaā€¦ and still have $ leftover).

  • Itā€™s all part of the plan: In 2008 nobody had cash. Except Warren. He bought the financial crisis dip, investing when prices were down ā€” ultimately turning a $10B profit. He did something similar during the 2020 downturn.

  • If markets dip, Warren is ready to buy the dip. Heā€™s doing something most investors should notā€¦

Weā€™ve personally tried to time markets like Warrenā€¦ and itā€™s failed. Even the best investors usually miss out when trying to time the market. Thatā€™s why financial advisers say itā€™s best to invest for the long-term and chill. Let Warren do what Warren does.

(From the Warrenā€™s Biggest Trade story)

EXPLAINED

šŸ‘¶ What does an ā€œOnly Childā€ economy look like?

We're about to find out ā€” because only child families have doubled from 11% of the population in the 1970s to 22% today.

Something about Only Children: They get a bad rep (Denice the Menace? Solo-kiddo). But only children are more likely to be independent, able to entertain themselves, and be strong problem-solvers. In fact some only child Hall of Famers include:

  • Inventors: Thomas Edison, Nikola Tesla, Leonardo DaVinci (although Leo did have 17 half-siblings)

  • Superheroes: James Bond, Harry Potter & Hermione, Batman

Peeling off a layer: How many children you have is not always a choice ā€” Fertility is more challenging than many realize. But for Millennial parents who can choose, more are choosing to have only 1 kid. Mostly due to Economicsā€¦ when unaffordability is high, birth rates are low (the # of kids born dropped big after the financial crisis of 2008, too). But to know what an economy looks like with more Only Children in itā€¦

The perfect case study is China. where there was a 1-child policy for 30 years. 

  • Professionally: There are fewer entrepreneurs, more traditional jobs.

  • Athletically: In the Olympics, China dominates in individual sports, but struggles in team sports.

  • Financially: Single children are also single caretakers for their aging parents, so there are more savers/long-term investors.

The Takeaway: As millennial solo-offspring grows up there may be fewer founders, but more CEOs. Less splurging, more saving.

(From The Only Child Economy episode)

TELL A BESTIE

The best headlines to bring to the weekend tailgateā€¦

  • šŸ«£ Jaguarā€™s rebrand looks like a Maybelline ad.

  • šŸ¦‹ Bluesky is now the #1 downloaded social media app b/c itā€™s OG Twitter / Alt X

  • šŸ½ļø Fake reviews of a London restaurant made it a hot spot.

  • āœŠ Most powerful job in tech today? Product Managerā€¦ The PM is the mini-CEO

  • šŸŒ A banana-duct-taped-to-a-wall piece of art sold for $6M (spoiler: Bought by a CryptoBro)

THE BEST IDEA YET

Did ya know the horses on Leviā€™s 501 Jeans are running in opposite directions to symbolize how tough the jeans are (even bucking broncos canā€™t rip ā€˜em)ā€¦.

Thatā€™s part of our NEW EPISODE of ā€œThe Best Idea Yetā€: The Untold Story of Leviā€™s 501 Jeans šŸ‘– 

The 1st ever pair of jeans is the best-selling jeans everā€¦ The Leviā€™s 501.

New 45-minute episodes drop every Tuesday: The untold origin stories of the products youā€™re obsessed. Listen to The Best Idea Yet this weekend.

HINT for next episode: The existence of this item on an Airbnb listening increases bookings by 13%. Bidet? Peloton? Margarita machine? Itā€™s the topic of next episode of TBIY.

And one more thing. 

ā€” Nick & Jack

Nick researching a foreign object (to him)

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