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šÆ The 1 man selling rn
And the McRib Effect
Happy Saturday Besties,
Instagram is testing a reset button for your algorithm ā 1 button that resets what posts are recommended. Meta calls it a recommendation reset (we call it an algorithm amnesty).
If you skimmed a carousel from Skims one time, and your Explore page is not-safe-for-work as a result (Nickš)ā¦ now you can give it a cleanse.
This is so crazyā¦ that maybe you forward this email to 3 besties and tell them about it š. Do it right now. Weāll waitā¦ reply if you do. š š
GET THIS
š McDonaldās is bringing back the McRib (again)ā¦and this time itās even selling McRib sauce in half-gallon jugs. š«¢
But even bigger than that is The McRib Effect: When this pork sandwich is on the menu, the S&P Index rises 3x more than when itās not (Data Analyst Nick Magguli ran the numbers from 2010 to 2017). Itās correlation, not causation, but...
When ya dive deeper into the data, McRibās surprise return dates are actually highly strategic ā When McDonaldās revenue drops (see: E. Coli outbreak), the McRibs drops:
š½ The last 4x McDās brought back the McRib were during periods of slowing or shrinking sales (including right now)
And even wilder? The McRib also align with low pork prices:
š½ The last 4x McDās brought back the McRib, pork prices had recently fallen 20% (including right now)
The Takeaway: McRib isnāt just a profit puppy, itās McDonaldās superhero. It boosts sales AND cuts costs.
š The stock market and Bitcoin are at record highs. Everyone keeps buying everything from crypto to stocks to banana-artā¦
ā¦except for 1 person: Warren Buffett.
Ever since he started managing Berkshire Hathawayās money 58 years ago, his average annual return is 20% ā Thatās twice as good as the S&P 500. So when he speaks, we listenā¦.
What would Warren do? Heās sold $133B of stock in 2024, and bought almost nothing. Meanwhile, markets have been in euphoria, with stocks & crypto at all-time-highs.
So heās sitting on a record pile of cash: $325B. How much is that exactly? $325B is enough to buy 1 Disney, 2 McDonaldās, or 3 Nikes (actually, itās enough to buy every single fast food chain in Americaā¦ and still have $ leftover).
Itās all part of the plan: In 2008 nobody had cash. Except Warren. He bought the financial crisis dip, investing when prices were down ā ultimately turning a $10B profit. He did something similar during the 2020 downturn.
If markets dip, Warren is ready to buy the dip. Heās doing something most investors should notā¦
Weāve personally tried to time markets like Warrenā¦ and itās failed. Even the best investors usually miss out when trying to time the market. Thatās why financial advisers say itās best to invest for the long-term and chill. Let Warren do what Warren does.
(From the Warrenās Biggest Trade story)
EXPLAINED
š¶ What does an āOnly Childā economy look like?
We're about to find out ā because only child families have doubled from 11% of the population in the 1970s to 22% today.
Something about Only Children: They get a bad rep (Denice the Menace? Solo-kiddo). But only children are more likely to be independent, able to entertain themselves, and be strong problem-solvers. In fact some only child Hall of Famers include:
Inventors: Thomas Edison, Nikola Tesla, Leonardo DaVinci (although Leo did have 17 half-siblings)
Superheroes: James Bond, Harry Potter & Hermione, Batman
Peeling off a layer: How many children you have is not always a choice ā Fertility is more challenging than many realize. But for Millennial parents who can choose, more are choosing to have only 1 kid. Mostly due to Economicsā¦ when unaffordability is high, birth rates are low (the # of kids born dropped big after the financial crisis of 2008, too). But to know what an economy looks like with more Only Children in itā¦
The perfect case study is China. where there was a 1-child policy for 30 years.
Professionally: There are fewer entrepreneurs, more traditional jobs.
Athletically: In the Olympics, China dominates in individual sports, but struggles in team sports.
Financially: Single children are also single caretakers for their aging parents, so there are more savers/long-term investors.
The Takeaway: As millennial solo-offspring grows up there may be fewer founders, but more CEOs. Less splurging, more saving.
(From The Only Child Economy episode)
TELL A BESTIE
The best headlines to bring to the weekend tailgateā¦
š«£ Jaguarās rebrand looks like a Maybelline ad.
š¦ Bluesky is now the #1 downloaded social media app b/c itās OG Twitter / Alt X
š½ļø Fake reviews of a London restaurant made it a hot spot.
ā Most powerful job in tech today? Product Managerā¦ The PM is the mini-CEO
š A banana-duct-taped-to-a-wall piece of art sold for $6M (spoiler: Bought by a CryptoBro)
THE BEST IDEA YET
Did ya know the horses on Leviās 501 Jeans are running in opposite directions to symbolize how tough the jeans are (even bucking broncos canāt rip āem)ā¦.
Thatās part of our NEW EPISODE of āThe Best Idea Yetā: The Untold Story of Leviās 501 Jeans š
The 1st ever pair of jeans is the best-selling jeans everā¦ The Leviās 501.
New 45-minute episodes drop every Tuesday: The untold origin stories of the products youāre obsessed. Listen to The Best Idea Yet this weekend.
HINT for next episode: The existence of this item on an Airbnb listening increases bookings by 13%. Bidet? Peloton? Margarita machine? Itās the topic of next episode of TBIY.
And one more thing.
ā Nick & Jack
Nick researching a foreign object (to him)
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