Hey Yetis & Besties,

Happy Cinco di BerkDerbyPlayoffs. This weekend we’ve got Cinco de Mayo, NBA + NHL playoffs, the Kentucky Derby, Formula 1 in Miami, and the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting.

But we’re zooming in on The Derby — the longest-running US sporting event. After 151 years, is there a pattern in winners’ names? Yessssss.

• 13% of winners had names starting with S — like Secretariat, Smarty Jones, Sea Hero.

• Then there’s the double S winners: Seattle Slew, Street Sense, Super Saver, Sunday Silence. Even this year’s frontrunners? Sandman and Sovereignty.

• And yet S is just 4% of the alphabet.

We’re not saying bet on S… But S is statistically… strong.

🍕 The Pizza Paradox: Tariff-Proof, But Sales Are Still Down

We’re on Day 31 of our Trade War Almanac, tracking how tariffs are messing with the economy. And today’s most delicious contradiction? It’s covered in cheese, sausage, and 800 calories.

🍕 Pizza should be Tariff-Proof

Domino’s and Pizza Hut source nearly 100% of its ingredients from inside the US. No imported mozzarella from Naples. No Tuscan basil. The Pepperoni’s from Pittsburgh, not Puglia. So from a supply chain perspective, pizza’s insulated from tariffs.

And yet Domino’s and Pizza Hut both announced in earnings this week that their pizza sales fell from Jan-March.

Here’s the plot twist: Americans didn’t stop eating pizza in tough economic times… they just stop ordering it. While Restaurant Pizza sales are down, Frozen Pizza sales are up 🥶 

• After the ‘08 Financial Crisis and during the Pandemic, frozen pizza sales surged.

• Today? Costco’s 4-pack of cheese pizzas for $13 is looking like a recession/Trade War special.

The Takeaway: The Trade War isn’t killing pizza—it’s changing how we eat it. Welcome to the Pizza Paradox: Delivery pizza is Tariff-Proof, but consumers prefer frozen pizza that’s also Recession-Proof.

🤖 Your Own Waymo?

Waymo just teamed up with Toyota to build “next-generation personally owned vehicles”—not robotaxis, but robo-yours. And that move to innovate a personal chauffeur? Likely triggered by Tesla.

Waymo’s robotaxi fleet — operating in San Francisco, Phoenix, LA, and Austin — just hit 250K rides per week, up 25% since February (Waymo actually does more rides in SF than Lyft does).

But this partnership with Toyota represents a different business model: from shared rides to private ones: Your next Toyota Tacoma, but with a Waymo upgrade. It will have eyes, ears, and a brain that let the car drive itself.

• Robo-chauffeur: It will drive you to the airport while you sleep in the back seat. When your return flight lands, summon it back to the arrivals section to pick you up.

• Robo-childcare: The Toyota Waymo picks up your kids from practice (data shows it has fewer crashes than human drivers so far).

• Robo-side-hustle: Let it earn cash while you sleep by operating in the ride-hail fleet. Like Airbnb, but for your ride. Suddenly your personal car goes from a cost-center to a revenue-generator. 🚕 

But we think Waymo’s personal car moves are being driven by… Tesla. Elon said last month that Tesla’s launching 20 self-driving Model Ys in Austin in June/July. With a new Robotaxi app and production costs ~75% lower than a Waymo, Tesla’s a real threat.

The Takeaway: Competition drives innovation.

After years of false self-driving hype, it’s actually here — a Self-driving 18-wheeler drove from Houston to Dallas this week (the CEO was in the backseat for the historic ride).

And we’re calling it: Tesla vs Waymo will be the tech showdown of 2025 and beyond. Best part? We consumers are gonna benefit from it —Competition drives more autonomy, less driving, and maybe even passive income as each brand tries to beat the other.

👯‍♀️ Tell a Bestie:

• 🏆️ S&P 500 rises for 9th straight day, longest streak since 2004. Reasons? A solid jobs report in April and signs US/China trade talks may finally begin

• 🍾 160-yo Champagne returns… at $300 a pop

• 📵 Zuck wants you to touch grass, fewer screens

• 🧸 The highlight from Warren Buffett’s annual shareholder conference? These stuffed toys

• 🎓 Startups are launching software to detect if you use Cluey (the AI cheating software we covered on the pod last week)

• 🌆 SpaceX is voting to incorporate its own city in Texas (with Elon as founding father)

• 🥫 Chef Boyardee sells for $600M to PE (the founder? Chef Boiardi, who worked at the Plaza Hotel)

• 🏎️ 👗 Formula 1 is near $4B in rev - but this weekend’s race is really a fashion show

• 🍺 “Dad’s Strength” is a new IPA with just 2.9% ABV

• 🤑 Block stock fell 20% because the kids aren’t using Cash App anymore

• 🧠 Gen Z Lifestyle Subsidy: AI. Work smarter, scroll harder

The Best Idea Yet  🥤 

The Frappuccino changed coffee shops forever… but Starbucks didn’t invent it (in fact, founder Howard Schultz hated it at first on moral grounds).

Check out the the newest episode of our weekly podcast The Best Idea Yet, to hear about the little Boston startup that invented the Frapp.

Listen to The Best Idea Yet for a weekly deep dive into the viral products you’re obsessed with.

And one more thing. Jack’s watching the Derby with a slow-cooked carnitas taco situation and Mezcal margs. Nick says he’s at the Berkshire Hathaway meeting… but based on the video we’re about to drop on our IG, you’re gonna want to see what that really means. 👀

Plus, big announcement coming Monday… the location/date of our next live show, so tune in 🎬️ 

—Nick & Jack