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- š Santa vs. Walmart
š Santa vs. Walmart
And high on stock(ings)
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This is St. Nick. This is Jack Frost. And since the gifts of the 12 Days of Christmas just hit a record high $46,729.86 (inflation hit the Six Geese-A-Layinā hard), we came up with our ownā¦
The 12 Days of TBOY:
12 T-swift Ticketsā¦make it rein, deer.
11 Chatbots chattingā¦and dancing and prancing.
10 DINKs-a-DINKingā¦Santa isnāt coming down that chimney.
9 Tips-A-Creepingā¦snow thanks.
8 Xers-Tweetingā¦no need to Claus a scene.
7 Actors-Strikingā¦now theyāre caroling.
6 Cyber-Truckers...proof there is such a thing as too much tinsel.
5 Costco Hot Dogsā¦very North Pole-ish.
4 Grimace milkshakesā¦or his Xmas sweater.
3 AI Drake Songsā¦a wrappy holiday mix.
2 Stanley Tumblersā¦chimney resistant.
And an Air Fryer just for meā¦crisp Kringle indeed.
Weāre taking a newsletter break for a TBOY holiday vacation starting next week. But we have a gift coming to your inbox on Christmas Eve. And weāre publishing bonus pods each day of next week. Tis the season.
Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Subscribe here to get TBOY 3x/week every week.
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1) Finishing on a Stock Market High
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The ending no one expected ā the stock market is heading to the end of the year at an all-time high.
Letās go back: At the end of 2022, analysts, economists, CEOs, and Jamie Dimon were all worried about āthe R-wordā ā Recession. 2023 was going to be the āyear of efficiencyā (layoffs), according to Zuck.
How thatās lookinā now: On a scale of strong to quite strongā¦
The S&P 500: The index of Americaās 500 top stocks is now up 31% since October and has now surpassed its previous high from January 2022, if you include dividends. *Flex.
The Dow is at an all-time record high, passing 37K points ā itās 2x higher than the lowest point in pandemic times. *Puffs chest.
To sum it up: Itās a Santa Rally, a Hanukkah Hop. *Beats chest.
The main reason stocks are up: The Fed. Because this week, our central bank gave a shocking update ā after nearly 2 years of interest rate increases, it forecasts 3 interest rate cuts are coming next year. The Fed all but announced Mission Accomplished on its quest to slay inflation. And investors were thrilled.
The Takeaway ā
The biggest gift this holiday season is a bull market. By lowering interest rates in 2024, the Fed would loosen up more money into the economy, making it easier for consumers and businesses to borrow & spendā¦
š Mortgage rates would go down ā making it easier to buy a home.
š Car loan interest rates would go down ā making it easier to buy a RAV4.
š Venture capital can raise more $$$ ā so entrepreneurs can gain more funding.
All we gotta say is Happy last night of Hanukkah.
2) The Scale of Claus Industries
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āTis the season of chocolate for breakfast. If you're in the sugar plum spirit, we dissected Claus Industries ā We whipped up the Annual Report on Santaās business
Klaus Incorporated: Ticker symbol: $NICE (North Pole Stock Exchange). CEO: Santa Claus.
š Competitive advantage: Magic. Like Goop, but x1000.
ā Supply Chain: The big āole Amazon-like elf-force is based in the North Pole, with little tariff trade risk.
š Market Size: 2B customers globally (the entire world population under 14 years old).
šŖ The #s: At one $10 gift/ child (conservatively). And naughtiness data N/Aā¦
š„ The dollars: $10 each for 2B customers equals $20B in sales in just 1 day. But no one pays. Claus Industries has always honored its 100% discount for nice children (buy one, get that same one free).
āļø Labor risk: #ColdStrikeChristmas?
But wait ā thereās myrrhā¦
The Takeaway ā
The Takeaway: If Santa could scale magicā¦ and deliver gifts every day of the year, then Claus Industries would generateā¦
ā¦11x the revenue of Walmart: $7T in revenue if Xmas were every day.
ā¦5x the profits of Apple: At roughly the same toy profit margins as Hasbro ($511B profits/yr). Sleigh.
When your competitive advantage is magic, youāve got a monopoly.
On the podā¦
ā¤ļøāš„ The best āWrappedā trend of the season ā Dating Wrapped. Singles are calculating their 1st date conversion rates (iykyk) and sharing their dating digits for the year on social media. This story starts with dating and ends with Socrates. If youāre open to that kind of thing, just listen to todayās pod.
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Hereās what else you need to know today ā
š¤ Elonās newest venture is a school. Tax filings from Elonās charitable org show heās planning a STEM University in Austin, Texas.
š½ For the 1st time in 2 years, rental prices in Manhattan fell. Itās the Empire State of Mind.
š Ikea is officially selling a turkey-sized meatball for the holidays. Who's handling the meat this year?
š«š· Apple is about to be bigger than the stock market of France ā both are currently worth $3.1T. For scale: France has the largest stock market in all of Europe. But Appleās the most valuable stock in the world. Oh Mon Dieu.
š Nerds Candy is planning its 1st Super Bowl ad. The brand has grown from $50M sales to $500M in 4 years. The lil glob characters are adorable btw.
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The worldās largest PB factory is in KY. And the US is the world's largest peanut producer ā Ā½ of which comes from Georgia. Btw ā no one will be upset if you bring PB drops to the potluck.
And one more thing. New pods, newsletters, Live shows, bonus episodes, merch ā are all coming in 2024. But what else do you wish to see from TBOY in 2024?
Btw: Santaās not taking cookies as payment this year, heās on Ozempic.
āNick & Jack
FYI, the writers of this newsletter own stock of Apple and ETFs of the S&P 500 index.
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