This is St. Nick. This is Jack Frost. And since the gifts of the 12 Days of Christmas just hit a record high $46,729.86 (inflation hit the Six Geese-A-Layin’ hard), we came up with our own…

The 12 Days of TBOY:

• 12 T-swift Tickets…make it rein, deer.

• 11 Chatbots chatting…and dancing and prancing.

• 10 DINKs-a-DINKing…Santa isn’t coming down that chimney.

• 9 Tips-A-Creeping…snow thanks. 

• 8 Xers-Tweeting…no need to Claus a scene.

• 7 Actors-Striking…now they’re caroling.  

• 6 Cyber-Truckers...proof there is such a thing as too much tinsel. 

• 5 Costco Hot Dogs…very North Pole-ish.

• 4 Grimace milkshakes…or his Xmas sweater. 

• 3 AI Drake Songs…a wrappy holiday mix. 

• 2 Stanley Tumblers…chimney resistant. 

• And an Air Fryer just for me…crisp Kringle indeed. 

We’re taking a newsletter break for a TBOY holiday vacation starting next week. But we have a gift coming to your inbox on Christmas Eve. And we’re publishing bonus pods each day of next week. Tis the season.

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1) Finishing on a Stock Market High

The ending no one expected — the stock market is heading to the end of the year at an all-time high. 

Let’s go back: At the end of 2022, analysts, economists, CEOs, and Jamie Dimon were all worried about “the R-word” — Recession. 2023 was going to be the “year of efficiency” (layoffs), according to Zuck. 

How that’s lookin’ now: On a scale of strong to quite strong… 

• The S&P 500: The index of America’s 500 top stocks is now up 31% since October and has now surpassed its previous high from January 2022, if you include dividends. *Flex. 

• The Dow is at an all-time record high, passing 37K points — it’s 2x higher than the lowest point in pandemic times. *Puffs chest. 

• To sum it up: It’s a Santa Rally, a Hanukkah Hop. *Beats chest. 

The main reason stocks are up: The Fed. Because this week, our central bank gave a shocking update — after nearly 2 years of interest rate increases, it forecasts 3 interest rate cuts are coming next year. The Fed all but announced Mission Accomplished on its quest to slay inflation. And investors were thrilled.

The Takeaway →

The biggest gift this holiday season is a bull market. By lowering interest rates in 2024, the Fed would loosen up more money into the economy, making it easier for consumers and businesses to borrow & spend…

• 🎁 Mortgage rates would go down — making it easier to buy a home.

• 🎁 Car loan interest rates would go down — making it easier to buy a RAV4.

• 🎁 Venture capital can raise more $$$ —  so entrepreneurs can gain more funding.

All we gotta say is Happy last night of Hanukkah.

2) The Scale of Claus Industries  

‘Tis the season of chocolate for breakfast. If you're in the sugar plum spirit, we dissected Claus Industries — We whipped up the Annual Report on Santa’s business

Klaus Incorporated: Ticker symbol: $NICE (North Pole Stock Exchange). CEO: Santa Claus.

• 🎄 Competitive advantage: Magic. Like Goop, but x1000. 

• ⛄ Supply Chain: The big ‘ole Amazon-like elf-force is based in the North Pole, with little tariff trade risk.

• 🎁 Market Size: 2B customers globally (the entire world population under 14 years old).

• 🍪 The #s: At one $10 gift/ child (conservatively). And naughtiness data N/A…

• 🥛 The dollars: $10 each for 2B customers equals $20B in sales in just 1 day. But no one pays. Claus Industries has always honored its 100% discount for nice children (buy one, get that same one free). 

• ❄️ Labor risk: #ColdStrikeChristmas? 

But wait — there’s myrrh…

The Takeaway →

The Takeaway: If Santa could scale magic… and deliver gifts every day of the year, then Claus Industries would generate…

• …11x the revenue of Walmart: $7T in revenue if Xmas were every day.

• …5x the profits of Apple: At roughly the same toy profit margins as Hasbro ($511B profits/yr). Sleigh.

When your competitive advantage is magic, you’ve got a monopoly.

On the pod…

❤️‍🔥 The best “Wrapped” trend of the season — Dating Wrapped. Singles are calculating their 1st date conversion rates (iykyk) and sharing their dating digits for the year on social media. This story starts with dating and ends with Socrates. If you’re open to that kind of thing, just listen to today’s pod.

Here’s what else you need to know today —

🤠 Elon’s newest venture is a school. Tax filings from Elon’s charitable org show he’s planning a STEM University in Austin, Texas. 

🗽 For the 1st time in 2 years, rental prices in Manhattan fell. It’s the Empire State of Mind.

🍖 Ikea is officially selling a turkey-sized meatball for the holidays. Who's handling the meat this year?

🇫🇷 Apple is about to be bigger than the stock market of France — both are currently worth $3.1T. For scale: France has the largest stock market in all of Europe. But Apple’s the most valuable stock in the world. Oh Mon Dieu.

🏈 Nerds Candy is planning its 1st Super Bowl ad. The brand has grown from $50M sales to $500M in 4 years. The lil glob characters are adorable btw. 

🎵 A TikToker stumbled upon Spotify’s AI-driven playlist feature — But the app isn’t spilling details just yet about the bot project. 

And one more thing. New pods, newsletters, Live shows, bonus episodes, merch — are all coming in 2024. But what else do you wish to see from TBOY in 2024?

Btw: Santa’s not taking cookies as payment this year, he’s on Ozempic. 

—Nick & Jack