This is Nick. This is Jack. It’s time for our annual Pop-Biz Halloween Costume Contest. The gist: Head to our Instagram to see our costumes for this year (👀 👀), then comment with your business-themed costume ideas and like your favorite ideas from fellow Yetis—the best ones will get a shoutout on the pod. For the high-achievers: Dress up in a pop-biz costume for a chance to be named the Best Costume Yet.

Here are some of our ideas that didn’t make the cut…

😵 Bed Bath & Beyond The Grave—a pile of expired candles
✌️ Sam Barbie-Fried—pick up a distinctive curly-haired wig and a bikini
➗ Couples Costume: Girl Math & Guy Math—together, everything’s free
🔌 Group Costume: Apple’s Dongles (USB-A, USB-B, USB-C)

1) Disney Reveals ESPN’s Numbers for the First Time Ever

And it turns out ESPN powers more annual profit for Disney than the entirety of Disney's entertainment business. When’s the 30 for 30 on ESPN’s unrivaled team leadership?

Roll the tape: Before ESPN took the field in 1979, professional and elite college sports weren’t the massive $$$ generator they are today. Sports biz was primarily ticket sales, concession sales, and ads.

• Then ESPN got in the game as the first 24-hour sports channel and sales weren’t limited to the in-person events anymore.

• Shows like SportsCenter brought highlight reels and a whole new kind of moneyball to the masses.

Here’s the 27-year old secret: Disney has kept ESPN’s financials under lock and key since it bought the company in 1996. But last week, it debuted some big stats from ESPN:

• 💸 $16B in revenue and nearly $3B in profit in 2022.

• To sprinkle on some context: That’s about ¼ the size of Netflix’s profit last year.

• And ESPN made more profit than Disney’s streaming, TV, and studio businesses for the year…combined.

Why open the playbook now? Disney is looking to draft a teammate (read: “strategic partner” who might buy it or take a stake) to help bring ESPN into the streaming era, and these solid stats advertise ESPN as a starter.

The Takeaway →

We’ve all been paying ESPN a secret subscription. Disney didn’t just report how much ESPN makes, but also how ESPN makes it. The majority of ESPN’s revenue come from “affiliate fees,” or the fees cable TV providers pay to ESPN (about $9/month). That’s the secret subscription we all pay to ESPN by having cable.

Here-in lies the problem: Cord-cutting is hotter than the pantless trend—over half of US households no longer pay for cable. In these cord-cutting times, Disney & ESPN are losing that secret subscription.

2) McRib Is Up…and Stocks Are Too

Want to know when stocks will go up? The McRib will tell you—the stock market performs 3x better when it’s on the Mickey D’s menu (which it is right now).

The McRib is McDonald’s on-again, off-again BBQ pork-based 😉 sandwich that first debuted on the menu in 1981. It’s slapped with pickles, onions, and an economic correlation.

The details: Data analyst Nick Maggiulli ran some numbers to see whether there was a correlation between McRib availability and the stock market (must have been a slow day).

What he found:

• 🐷 When the McRib is available, the S&P 500 has an average daily return about 7 basis points (0.07%) higher than on days when the McRib is not available.

• The difference: Annualized, stocks would go up 19% more every year when the McRib was on the menu...call that the McRib Effect.

Hold the mayo, is this legit? Let’s talk about it →

The Takeaway →

There’s no one reason stocks rise or fall. McRib is a prime case of “correlation, not causation.” Just because two things happen at the same time doesn’t mean one causes the other (just like how the US goes into a recession when the Phillies win the World Series 🤞🤞). And with so many variables driving stock “buys/sells” each day, it’s nearly impossible to determine one cause. So the McRib is a statistical anomaly. Best not to let pork run your portfolio.

On the pod today

Why Are American Express customers angrier than ever…yet sticking with their Amex credit cards anyway? Because customers chirp, but they don’t churn. We’ll explain in today’s episode.

Listen on Apple, Spotify, Youtube, or wherever you get your pods.

🫰 President Biden asked Congress for $105B in funding for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and border security. That wish can’t be granted, though, until the US House of Representatives elects a speaker (we’ve been speaker-less for nearly 3 weeks now).

🚖 The CEOs of Joby and Delta are working to bring air taxis to an airport near you (if you’re in NYC or LA) by 2025—great for when the Uber app says “your driver will arrive in 23 minutes.”

💼 Update from the SBF crypto fraud trial: The prosecutors compared Bankman-Fried’s defense to the plot of the movie Dumb & Dumber. No joke.

📱Apple CEO Tim Cook just made a surprise visit to China, home to the co’s biggest factory. Cook may be cool enough to boost slumping iPhone sales.

💰 Ivy League student-athletes earn $220K more in their lifetimes than non-athletes, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

🍫 Snickers maker Mars preps for Halloween 2 years in advance. This year is set to be a big cavity.

🤳 John Legend launched a tech startup. It’s a curated review app to take on Yelp. Think: Chrissy Teigen’s recs for where to get tacos in San Diego.

And one more thing. What’s your pop-biz Halloween costume idea? Hit reply and let us know, or head to @tboypod on Instagram to see what others are coming up with.

—Nick & Jack