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šŸ™ˆ The S-Word

And Japan's ski arbitrage

Happy Saturday, Besties.

The Internetā€™s Favorite Holiday? April Fools for Brands. We whipped up some of the most clever ones from last week.

  • Subway launched SubWHEY, a fake line of protein shakes.

  • Yahoo debuted the Touch Grass Keyboard, with real grass between the keys.

  • IKEA promised a Linear Store Layout, aka a straight shot to checkout (no more relationship breakups in aisle 6).

  • The Kansas City Chiefs dropped a cursed image: Andy Reid without a mustache.

  • As for us? Skims faux-nnounced a new Wall Street line. See the collection we modeled here.

Now on to what actually happened last week: Wasnā€™t pretty. We wish the S&P 500ā€™s 10% drop on Thurs/Fri was an April Foolā€™s Joke. Worst week since the Pandemicā€¦

šŸ”„ Stagflation: The S-Word of Q2

As we closed the books on Q1 2025, one word was rising from the ashes of economic chaos: Stagflation. If Q1 was a rollercoaster, Q2 might feel like your house is both flooding and on fire at the same timeā€¦ thatā€™s Stagflation.

  • Q1 Recap ā€” Whiplash Season: In January, stocks jumped 6% on hopes of deregulation & tax cuts. But by March, markets had dropped 10% thanks to on-again-off-again tariff drama and threats of Trade War II. More chaos than a Love Is Blind reunion.

  • Q2 Forecast ā€” Global Trade War: Trump dropped a nuclear tariff bomb in the trade war on Wednesday. On Thursday, JP Morgan raised the likelihood of a recession to 60%. But at the same time, the tariffs are expected to raise prices. That rare combo? Itā€™s an economistā€™s nightmare: stagflation.

šŸ”„ What Is Stagflation? When unemployment and inflation are both high at the same time ā€” the economyā€™s version of a bad hair day and a flat tire. Last time we saw it? The 1970s, when an oil embargo sent prices soaring and jobs vanishing.

  • The reason stagflation is so rare? Inflation is usually caused by an economy thatā€™s too hot. Think stimulus checks and revenge spending ā€” too many people trying to buy not enough stuff raised prices in 2022/2023. But with stagflation, itā€™s an external shock that causes prices to rise, like the Middle East cutting off oil to America in the 1970s.

This time, the external shock is the trade war. Tariffs drive up prices, retaliation from foreign countries drives down US jobs.

  • Itā€™s giving Disaster: Normally, high unemployment and high inflation donā€™t exist at the same time, like fire and water. But in stagflation, that rule of economics doesnā€™t apply, because itā€™s caused by something non-economic, i.e. politics.

šŸ“Œ The Takeaway for Q2: If ā€œstagflationā€ pops up in headlines this quarter, hereā€™s what to know:

  • Itā€™s rare, like a house flooding and on fire at the same time.

  • Itā€™s painful, as prices are rising while paychecks are falling.

  • Itā€™s driven more by politics than economics.

In short: not a vibe.

šŸŽæ Japow: Itā€™s Ski Arbitrage

Theyā€™ve got a problem over in Japan right now: too much snow. One town just got 50 inches in a single day ā€” a national record (2 inches every hour). This year, Japanā€™s ski resorts have 2.5x more snow than last year. The legendary light, deep powder ā€” aka Japow  ā€” is back in a big way.

And hereā€™s the wild part: For Americans, it can actually be cheaper to ski in Japan than in the USā€¦ Letā€™s run the Ski Math:

Vail, Colorado
āœˆļø $700 flight from SF (900 miles)
šŸŽŸļø $300/day lift tickets
šŸØ $1,000/night hotel (4-star)
āž”ļø Total: $3,300 for a ski weekend

vs.

Hokkaido, Japan
āœˆļø $1,000 flight from SF (5,000 miles)
šŸŽŸļø $50/day lift tickets
šŸØ $500/night hotel (4-star)
āž”ļø Total: $2,100 for a ski weekend

As we (both skiers) put it on the pod: Itā€™s ā€œCheaper to hit Mt. Fuji than Mt. Hood.ā€ Japanā€™s got record snow, while Vailā€™s got record lines. And as far as we know, skiingā€™s not tariffā€™d. Yet.

šŸ‘Æā€ā™€ļø Tell a Bestie:

These are the headlines from our ā€œHeadline Hammerā€ of potential stories for the show each morning that we just couldnā€™t fit on the pod:

  • šŸŒ“ White Lotus pays all actors a fixed $40K/epā€”not negotiable (szn finale is this Sunday, fyi)

  • šŸŗ Americaā€™s brewery count just fell for the first time since 2005.

  • šŸ§„ NVIDIAā€™s CEOā€™s has created a new category of fashion: ā€œThe Jensen Jacketā€.

  • šŸ’ Ovechkin is 4 Goals from Gretzky ā€”The Russian Rocket is still scoring like itā€™s 2008. GOAT status pending (but the key is his annual scoring consistency)

  • šŸ—£ļø Senator Cory Booker gave a record-breaking 25-hour filibuster ā€” word is he wore Hokaā€™s Clifton sneakers for the marathon session.

  • šŸ€  Final Four is this weekendā€¦ but whoā€™s the dark money behind Duke?

  • šŸ’„ Tax prep app creates a Pokemon game for taxesā€¦you gotta catch deductions.

The Best Idea Yet šŸ“²

Steve Jobs at first said no to the iPhone (he thought smartphones would never take off).

Once he said yes, they transformed the iPod into the iPhone with a secret team: Project Purple. Picture windowless room, if you tell anyone about this, weā€™ll kill you.

All of that is in the wild untold origin story of the iPhone ā€” the newest episode of our weekly podcast The Best Idea Yet.

Listen to The Best Idea Yet for a weekly deep dive into the products youā€™re obsessed with.

And one more thing. We attended the 2025 Ambie Awards in Chicago earlier this week ā€” The Best Idea Yet was nominated for Best Business Podcast (šŸ˜¬šŸ˜¬). Red carpet? You betcha (hereā€™s proof). Nick had a Glambot moment, and the botā€™s name was Jack.

We didnā€™t take home the Ambie, How I Built This with Guy Raz won ā€” a fantastic show and a worthy winner (Guyā€™s show was the 1st pod we ever listened to 9 years ago and his voice is an inspiration to us). Grateful for the nom, the night, and the mini quiches. 10/10, would Ambie again.

Celebrate the wins āœØ

ā€” Nick & Jack

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