This is Nick. This is Jack. And we just discovered the world’s biggest party pooper: CNBC interviewed the person behind Airbnb’s party ban. She developed anti-party AI to sniff out party houses & beer pong…and blocked over 320K parties in 2 years. Bad news for the trip we’re on right now—keep reading to hear where we’re sending this newsletter from. 🌎

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1) Instacart: The Latest IPO Is a Double-Dipper

Yesterday, Instacart became the first major venture-backed tech company to IPO since 2021. Now for about $33, you can buy a share of CART, the Uber for onions. #chickenstockstock

The OG of gig-app grocery delivery started in 2012. Popularity surged in 2020 (want to guess why?), and Instacart sales rose almost 600%.

But: Instacart’s revenue grew a more modest 31% in the first half of 2023. And its valuation? Down from $39B at its high to $11.5B today after its day 1 stock pop.

Worth noting: Instacart has pivoted from Silicon Valley to Madison Avenue. 30% of its business is advertising, not delivering Granny Smiths and Reese’s PB cups.

🥕 It’s on pace for $1B in ad sales this year.

🥕 In its IPO paperwork, Instacart mentioned “Delivery” 171x and “Advertising” 249x.

🥕 Instacart’s ads biz has helped drive $240M in profits so far this year.

The Takeaway →

In business, what’s old is new again…again. Tech disruptors—Uber, Amazon, even Netflix—are turning to the oldest business model of all: ads. Instacart is an advertising agency double-dipping with side hustle in logistics. I dip, you dip, we dip…

2) Is a 40% Raise for Autoworkers Reasonable? 

With the United Auto Workers’ monster strike still holding up car production in Detroit, we decided to run the numbers to answer one big question: Is the union’s request for a 40% pay raise over the next 4 years ridiculous?

The verdict: Absolutely not.

🔧 A 40% pay increase over 4 years shakes out to a 10% bump per year.

🔧 Over the last 4 years, inflation has driven prices up 20%—so really union workers are only asking for a 20% raise (assuming inflation is the same for the next 4 years).

🔧 That nets out to a 5% inflation-adjusted pay raise per year. Not ridiculous.

Can the Big Three automakers afford it? Hard yes. 💸 Since 2019, General Motors’ operating profit has increased 83%, while Ford’s has grown 135%. But Ford’s CEO said caving to the union’s demands could bankrupt the company…awkward.

The Takeaway →

The pay raise isn’t ridiculous. The rest of the union’s demands seem to be. The UAW also wants a promise for no layoffs, a 32-hour workweek, and a pension. No custom paint job too? Based on the numbers, the pay raise the autoworkers are demanding looks justifiable, but the rest of their demands might not be.

3) My Watch Says I’m Ovulating

The FDA just approved birth control on your wrist—Natural Cycles got the green light to use Apple Watch data for its au naturel birth control.

How it works: The Natural Cycles fertility app uses women’s body temperatures to track fertility every month.

The catch: You must take your temp at the exact same time and in the exact same way every day. Tough with the same thermometer you’ve had since college. But with perfect use, Natural Cycles is 98% clinically effective and 93% effective with typical use.

⌚ Here’s the real life-changer: Natural Cycles is now FDA-approved to use wrist temperature data from Apple Watch 👶 (which means hands-free birth control).

The Takeaway →

Platforms are all about potential. The potential of Natural Cycles’ impact is drawn into focus by this Apple tie-in. Natural Cycles brought the baby-making innovation with the software, and Apple brought the scale with the hardware. Like the iPhone, the Apple Watch is a platform, and platforms are all about potential.

🦁 Katy Perry just sold her stake in her music catalog for $225M. Cue “Last Friday Night…”

🌎The United Nations General Assembly is meeting in NYC this week with a focus on climate action. Yesterday, Ukraine’s President flew in to speak in person.

🍟Shake Shack is testing frying its french fries in sugarcane oil instead of soybean oil. You know, for health reasons.

⛽️ Gas prices jumped to $90/barrel ahead of today’s interest rate announcement.

🧪 Lab-grown meat can be halal and kosher since no animals are killed to make it, according to Islamic scholars.

🤓 The latest MBA trend is buying small companies. Entrepreneurship through acquisition (ETA) is trendier than a gig with Baird.

🍄 Wiz Khalifa has a new business: mushrooms. And they’re the family-friendly kind.

🐶 Petco stock hits all-time-low, down 85% from its 2021 IPO. Woof.

And one more thing. We’re in…LA for our TBOY off-site this week. Wanted: best Santa Monica spots to do/see/eat/experience (no Airbnbs though). Head to @tboypod for pics from our TBOY trip and hit reply here to share your recs.

—Nick & Jack