This is Nick. This is Jack. And the #2 rule of prediction podcasts is to first revisit your predictions from last year. For 2023, we were 1(ish)-for-3. We wished for 2023 that…

• 🥤 Budweiser would launch a chain of non-alc bars — Budweiser did get a lot of attention last year, but not for sober bars. 

• 🏰 Amazon would create AmazonLand: A Theme Park for its products — But Alexa did not start serving cotton candy. 

• 🏓 Nike would acquire Major League Pickleball — Nike did launch a line of pickleball-powered merchandise, but they did not buy the entire pro Pickleball league.

So what’s the #1 rule of predictions? “There’s no such thing as a wrong prediction. It just hasn’t happened… yet.”

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Wish #1: Robinhood Should Merge with X

Full (Full) Disclosure: We sold our last company to Robinhood, our podcast was once sponsored by them, and today we use the app and own stock of it. But, we don’t just throw out acquisition ideas unless we’ve analyzed all potential elements of it. Carry on. 

Some Context: Elon is on a mission to make X (Twitter) the “everything app.”

Simply put, the super app would replace YouTube, Tinder, LinkedIn, FaceTime, and even JPMChase — all in one. But so far, X is just messages/video.

Our case for Robinhood 🤝 X: 

• It’s a merger of equals: Both companies are worth roughly the same ($11B), and both brands have taken a bit of a hit the last couple years. 

• Both have powerful core products: Robinhood is tops for stock trading, X is still tops for text-based social media.

• For Robinhood: This would provide growth. Since its 2021 IPO, users have declined. But with X’s 300M monthly-active-users, Robinhood could sign up for brokerage accounts for them with little friction. 

• For X: You can’t be “everything” without finance. People could trade based on social conversations, and X would be 1 product launch away from peer-to-peer payments.

The Takeaway →

A successful merger must follow the 3 Cs.

• Culture: The people need to mix well. X and Robinhood are both Bay Area tech companies with big goals to change the world.

• Complementary: Deals don’t work if companies do the same thing or totally unrelated things — they must be complementary. Robinhood brings the financial talent, X brings the audience.

• Cash: It has to be financially viable for both sides.

A merger of Robinhood and X would be a true “super app” democratizing finance for all.

Wish #2: Trader Joe’s Should Launch a Streaming Service: TJTV+ 

The TLDR on TJ’s: For the last 55 years, it’s had the most unique business model in grocery — less choice. But it works… 

• The average grocery store stocks 40K items, while the avg TJ’s has just 4K. That’s curation — TJ’s offers only one option for orange chicken and artichoke dip… but they’re the best.

• TJ’s is the only grocery store with a Hall of Fame and it arguably has the strongest fan base.

So what's next? We think it should be a streaming service: TJTV+ (or Soy Chorizo Max, iykyk) 

• The idea: Rethink the food as the content, but less Food Network vibes and more Netflix vibes.

• TJ Cooking Shows: Bobby Flay makes Thanksgiving dinner using only TJ’s products.

• Dating Shows: Connection based on a shared love of Mandarin Orange chicken. 

• College Gameday-style roadshow (our fave): A traveling studio visits a new TJ’s store each week with epic cookoffs to make the Vegan Kale Cashew Dip.

• Scripted narrative shows: We’d love to see a coming-of-age drama on a self-conscious bagel who smells like everything.

The Takeaway →

Every company is now a media company. Last year, a slew of non-media companies drank the media juice. 

• Walmart launched a holiday rom-com(merce) on TV about shopping. 

• Mattel’s Barbie movie made us all feel Ken-nough

• NASA launched a streaming network, NASA+.

It’s time TJ’s treats its Peanut Butter Filled Pretzel Nuggets like the star it is. 

Wish #3: Taylor Swift Will Disrupt Ticketmaster

“It’s not me. Hi. I’m not the problem. It’s Ticketmaster” —The title of our Nov 17, 2022 podcast episode... and an honest headache for concert-goers. 

Some context: Over 1 year ago, Ticketmaster biblical botched pre-sales of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour. How? Ever since Live Nation acquired TicketMaster in 2010 it’s known to have a monopoly on tickets. 12 years of no competition left it un-ready to handle the swifties. Sounds like a blank space opportunity…

Our case for the post-Ticketmaster Era:

• Enter “SwifTix”: The ticket monopoly buster. 👀

• The thing about Monopolies: They charge extra fees because there’s no competition. The service fee, the convenience fee, the fee fee… there’s nothing customers can do about it.

• The thing about Live Nation: It owns both concert venues and dominates in ticketing. By one estimate, musicians only take home 30% of concert revenue after LN’s cut and their fees.

• The solution: Taylor has profited handsomely despite those fees, but maybe she’s ready to not profit by fixing the broken ticket industry.

The Takeaway →

For-profit companies disrupt. Not-for-profit can revolutionize. Only Taylor has the sway and leverage to disrupt a giant like Live Nation. Her next concert would be the 1st to use SwiftTix (instead of TicketMaster). After that successful first case, musicians would prefer to use her platform for the lower fees and positive brand association. 

• Not-for-profit mission. The true differentiator: Like Patagonia, the business can run for profit, but SwifTix’s ownership is set up as a not-for-profit. 

• And that mission would be: Minimize fees for fans, pay musicians more, eliminate scalping of tickets — a live music dreamland. 

Only Taylor has the charisma to fix it. And Taylor always wins.

And one more thing. What business prediction or wish do you have for 2024? 

We’re sending out a special edition Sunday newsletter with a list of predictions along with the best submissions from the readers. We will give you a shoutout giving you credit. Reply with your wishes!

—Nick & Jack