This is Nick. This is Jack. And if you have fear of heights, stay clear of Uber’s newest feature—hot air balloon rides. These balloons are only available in Cappadocia, Turkey (a real hot spot for hot air balloons). If you’re a fan of the scenic route and the window seat, this ride’s for you. We’ll just order a Toyota Camry, but you do you.

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1) Mattel Has a Scary Tell

Mattel just reported that sales jumped 9% over the third quarter. So why did shares fall 7.5% yesterday? Something’s amiss in Barbie Land—let’s talk about what.

Starting with the good: Mattel’s summer success was driven primarily by dolls (no surprise there).

• Thanks to the Barbie movie (which Mattel said should net it $125M revenue from toy sales + a box office cut), the company’s iconic doll sales rose 16% from last year and drove Mattel out of a 4-quarter streak of sales shrinkage. 🎀 Ken took the backseat.

• Another driver: Hot Wheels sales grew 22% during the quarter. Beat that. 🏎️

What else is up? America's GDP just grew at the fastest pace in about a decade (not counting the pandemic-era bounce back): 4.9% growth in Q3. Economic data and corporate earnings showed consumer spending was on fire over the summer. But the key word here: was. 

Both GDP and Mattel earnings are backward looking measures of financial/economic health. Despite Mattel’s impressive earnings report, shares fell because the company is forecasting a downturn in the toy industry during the Christmas season.

The toy sales are trying to tell us something 🧸…

The Takeaway →

Stock prices look forward—and everything changed in October. Both yesterday and the day before, the Nasdaq fell some 2% to officially enter correction territory (AKA down more than 10% from its high for the year in July). The reasoning isn’t clear, but it could be interest rate worries or fears of growing unrest in the Middle East. As impressive as Barbie doll sales and GDP were, investors care more about what’s ahead.

2) How Celsius Stock Made 4,000% #Gainz

Crack open your 200mg can of caffeine: An energy drink analyst just disclosed how Celsius stock jumped almost 4,000% in the last 5 years.

Break it down: Growth in the energy drink industry is up 7% this year, making it one of the top categories in the bev biz. Celsius, which tastes like a LaCroix went to Soul Cycle, has been the straight-up highlight.

• Back in 2018: Celsius shares were trading for about $3—it wasn’t yet the 4pm drink of choice for gym rats and data analysts alike.

• But today: It’s up to $160. That’s a 4,000% surge. ⚡

How’d Celsius do it? 1 rando lucky game-changing moment 9 years ago. The tingly feeling started in 2014, when Coca-Cola saw an energy drink opportunity and took a 20% stake in Monster. As part of the deal, Coke took over all of Monster’s distribution. Suddenly all of Monster's original distributors quickly grabbed a replacement: Celsius. Every grocery store, gas station, and bodega that once carried Monster was filling that shelf space with Celsius.

The Takeaway →

An overnight success can be 20 years in the making. While it seemed to investors like Celsius came out of nowhere, it was founded in 2004—its founders had spent half their lives on those 200mg cans of super-productivity. 90% of life is showing up, and when Monster left, Celsius swooped in. Now it’s a $12B company (flex).

On the Pod:

🛻 Ford just ended one of the biggest auto strikes in history. If the deal it reached with the UAW is approved, workers will get a 25% pay raise. The deal reveals a negotiation lesson: “The Art of Anchoring.” And we’ll explain why in today’s episode. Listen on Apple, Spotify, Youtube, or wherever you get your pods.

✌️ President Biden called for a 2-state solution, saying, "Israelis and Palestinians equally deserve to live side by side in safety, dignity, and peace."

❤️‍🩹 Maine manhunt for Lewiston mass shooter extends to another night, as the state mourns at least 18 dead.

🐦 Pulse check: It’s Elon Musk’s 1-year anniversary of taking over Twitter. According to the WSJ, every other social app has gained monthly active users over the last year, but X has lost nearly 16%.

🛍️ Amazon’s quarterly profits more than tripled, sending the stock up 6% after earnings yesterday.

🫰 Landlord AI: Building owners are using software to maximize rent. But the Sith-lords are facing allegations from tenants in federal court for facilitating collusion.

💼 Morgan Stanley’s got a new CEO: He’s a Middlebury Panther and a math genius (seriously, give him a problem set and he’ll solve it).

🔍 Wanna see when the first LOL was typed? There’s an online museum of old website pages that’ll show you.

And one more thing. What happened in Maine and what’s still going on there is an awful and scary situation. We’ve both spent a lot of time in Maine—it’s a beautiful state, a tough state, with warm, amazing people. We’re thinking of all the Mainers on this dark day for the state.

—Nick & Jack